According to a Think Tank in Beijing, among the 60 warplanes recorded, 41 flew
over the disputed south china sea, six
over the east china sea and further
north 13 over the yellow sea. The chinese
government-backed south china sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI) said in a report released on
monday. The report said air refuelling
activities had shown an uptick last
month, possibly suggesting the united
states was preparing for future
long-distance attacks against targets in
the south china sea.
It said several air refuelling aircraft
sent to add fuel to the surveillance
planes over the south china sea had
departed from the u.s military base in
its western pacific island territory of Guam. It's unusual for the u.s to dispatch
fuel tankers from guam instead of from Kadena air base in Japan because such
operations are uneconomical and
inefficient. the report said such operations are more probably
preparing for future long-distance
refueling in extreme conditions and thus
deserve great attention.
This showed that the south china sea
region is still the us primary focus but
what is equally notable is that
activities in the yellow sea region had
a marked increase when compared with the
sporadic activities two months ago. The
report said the warplanes typically carry out two
kinds of reconnaissance flights, routine
and specific the former is more predictable given
their set pattern of plane type
frequency and region.
Of the specific reconnaissance flights, thirteen planes flew to the yellow sea
and three to the east china sea while
the chinese military was conducting
drills. According to the report the total number of flights was roughly
the same as in july and august. The
report said adding that the real numbers
may have been higher because some
warplanes disguised themselves as civil
planes or did not turn on transponders.
The report highlighted the danger of
such disguised spying activities with
six u.s planes having spied on chinese
military activities while using false
civil aircraft codes. in late september a u.s air force plane
changed its aircraft identification code
as it flew over the yellow sea making it
resemble a philippine aircraft before
reverting to its original number after
completing its mission, the SCSPI said.
Also in september american RC-135S planes electronically disguised
themselves as malaysian civilian
aircraft while flying close to chinese
airspace. The SCSPI said the switch was also reported by popular
mechanics magazine.
Beijing said in august that flying in
disguise was putting civilian aircraft
at risk. In 1983 the soviet air force shot down a
korean airlines passenger jet in its
airspace killing all 269 onboard after
misidentifying it as an intruding u.s
spy plane.
Ben Ho an associate research fellow at
the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore said the use of the Guam base showed the u.s military was
planning for a worst-case scenario. The u.s deployment of aerial tankers
from Guam rather than Okinawa hints at
the much-talked-about contingency where
bases on the japanese island are knocked
out by chinese missiles during the
opening stages of a sino-american
conflict.
Ho said it also shows that washington is hedging
against the possibility that japan
refuses u.s forces being stationed on
its soil to be deployed against china. Under these two circumstances america
has no choice but to fall back to Guam. But ho added while there is much talk
about the dangers posed by unsafe
encounters between the u.s and chinese
forces in the air or even at sea the
potential for escalation in such
situations as low.
Malcolm Davis a senior analyst
specializing in chinese security at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra said the u.s needed to step up
its presence to deter china from
engaging in regional aggression, including in the south china sea. My biggest worry is that china will seek
to exploit any internal unrest or
political distraction in the u.s
following the u.s presidential election
to move aggressively against taiwan or
in the south china sea. davis said. The u.s has to deter such an act and
these types of training missions are
part of that forward presence and
resolve being communicated to beijing.
