The threat of a russian invasion of ukraine has sent NATO countries
scrambling to provide military support to Kiev. In recent weeks spain france
estonia turkey the United Kingdom and the US among others have provided
varying kinds of military support to Ukraine in anticipation of russian
aggression.
Ukraine has accused russia boosting supplies of weapons, ammunition and
military equipment to separatist regions in Ukraine while actively
recruiting mercenaries to fight in the ongoing conflict.
It reported that the US and NATO forces plan to conduct large-scale military
exercises starting next week as a Pentagon spokesperson says, officials see
no sign of de-escalation from russia.
NATO countries have scrambled to provide military support to kiev in the
face of a russian invasion threat. the ex-soviet country is not a member of
nato. So the alliance has no legal obligation to defend it. however nato has
made it clear that it stands with Kiev and has called on moscow to ease
tensions.
"Some military movements appear to be posturing aimed at deterring russia
from any aggressive actions but other steps appear to be prepared for a
serious conflict. Either way experts say the assistance could show Russian
President Vladimir Putin that the cost of an invasion of ukraine is too
great. There's clearly a sense that the military support provided to ukraine
would help ukraine raise the cost to russia military aggression," said
former US Ambassador william courtney a senior fellow at rand corporation.
Ukraine has asked to join NATO a move that is staunchly opposed by russia.
Russian officials have demanded that nato not extend further eas, but
the alliance has rebuffed these demands.
The Kremlin has used this refusal as a justification to amass forces at the
border claiming unspecified security concerns. Russia has amassed at least
one hundred thousand troops near its border with ukraine and u.s officials
have warned that an attack could likely occur by mid-february.
In recent years the ukrainian forces have been able to increase operability
and protect itself against another invasion. Still the russian military is
far more dominant and capable than its opponent.
Courtney confirmed that nato has no formal obligation to defend ukraine, but
added that the west military support to the Eastern European country has
been quite substantial since 2014.
"At the time russian forces invaded and annexed the crimean peninsula.
Europe and the United States over time developed an increasing desire to
help ukraine advance internally both through reforms democratic and economic
reforms and also to move closer to the west which seems to be ukraine's
interest," he said.
One goal of aiding ukraine is centered around the concept of porcupine
defense. The idea that a country makes itself as difficult to invade as
possible.
"You provide security assistance and arms that are lethal that complicate
russia's ability to take large parts of ukraine without getting beaten up in
the process," said Rachel Ellahus Deputy Director of the Europe, Russia and
Eurasia Program at the center for strategic and international studies.
"So they can certainly withstand a russian incursion for a limited period of
time but not forever," she continued.
This method combined with the alliance's threats of severe economic
consequences should Russia invade could make Putin think twice about doing
so.
"The issue is helping to deter russian aggression by making clear that the
cost to it economic, military and the human costs of casualties will be
greater than may be expected before," Courtney said.
While the alliance is behind Ukraine, countries thus far have varied on the
extent of their support. Over the past couple of weeks denmark decided to
send four additional F-16 fighter jets to lithuania for air policing and a
160-man frigate in the Baltic sea.
France for its part has offered to send troops to romania. the united
kingdom already gave Ukraine like anti-armor defensive weapons systems, as
well as a small number of uk personnel to provide training.
Meanwhile Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania recently received approval from the
US to send american-made weapons to ukraine for additional defense. Estonia
is providing javelin anti-armor missiles while latvia and lithuania are
providing stinger anti-aircraft missiles and adjacent equipment.
"We sincerely hope that ukraine will face no need to use this equipment and
call on russian federation to seize its aggressive and irresponsible
behavior,: the Baltic Nation said in a statement.
Spain announced thursday that it is sending warships to bolster nato's naval
forces in the mediterranean and black seas and is mulling sending its own
fighter jets to bulgaria. But country sending assistance must strike a
delicate balance helping Ukraine without doing anything that could provoke
the Kremlin.
Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the council for foreign relations
explained that recent efforts to provide assistance have been defensive in
nature for this reason. Given that diplomacy continues and that the
preferred outcome by NATO countries is a diplomatic resolution to the
conflict.
NATO members are trying to find the right balance between improving the
capabilities of the ukrainian military to resist russian aggression and
taking steps that the russians would see as a provocation, Cupchen said.
Further complicating matters is uncertainty about how russia would invade
ukraine, should it choose to do so. Moscow has largely positioned troops
along ukraine's northeastern border. on tuesday it announced that it's
moving troops to belarus for military drills that are scheduled for next
month, when the west fears an invasion could occur.
The drills put more pressure on nato nations, as it puts russian troops on
ukraine's northern neighbor, giving putin more options for a possible
invasion.
"I think the dynamic really changed when russia sent forces into belarus,"
Ellen Hughes said.
A lot of allies now worry that russia is somehow preparing to invade
ukraine. Both from the south and then also from from belarus. A russian
invasion of Ukraine could trigger rush to ensure that countries on its
eastern flank are defended.
The US for its part has no intentions of sending troops to deter an invasion
but has said if Russia invades and it would send troops to bolster NATO's
forces along the eastern flank. President Biden has also repeated several
times in recent weeks that if russia decides to invade ukraine.
The US will slap devastating economic sanctions on the country. Vice
President Harris echoed this same sentiment in an interview with Savannah
Guthrie earlier this week.
The u.s military has already sent the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier
strike group to take part in a nato naval exercise in the mediterranean.
The naval exercises called Neptune strike 22 will occur in the mediterranean
and last until february 4th. the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier will
join the exercises, which will include integrated nato defenses and anti-sub
operations.
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters friday that the exercise will
show the deterrence and defense of the alliance. Kkirby responded to
questions over russia's potential to invade ukraine by highlighting russia's
isolation in contrast to nato's cooperative nature.
This is not a country that has a whole lot of friends kirby, said. This is
not a country that has allies and partners to lean on the way we do and the
way the west does He added.
The pentagon sees a very sizable force presence in the region and it
continues to be concerning as Russia shows no signs of withdrawing any of
its troops.
In fact quite the contrary, Kirby added, "i think they continue to add to
the force presence there and we remain concerned about that."
kirby also noted that the pentagon will continue to assess options of
capability in case nato allies require any reassurance. particularly on
nato's eastern flank. if there's another incursion and if they need that
reassurance that they need the capabilities to be bolstered, we're going to
do that and we're to make sure that we're that we're ready to do that, kirby
explained.
Meanwhile ukraine has accused russia boosting supplies of weapons,
ammunition and military equipment to separatist regions in Ukraine east.
Ukraine said russia continues to increase the combat capabilities of
pro-russian separatists and since the start of this month has secretly
transferred by rail and road more than 7,000 tons of fuel, several tanks and
self-propelled artillery units to the regions.
It said moscow was also undertaking active recruitment of mercenaries who
are being sent to separatist controlled regions. The neighbors have been
locked in the separatist conflict in Ukraine's eastern regions. Particularly
in Donetsk and Luhans since april 2014. The fighting began after mass
protests prompted ukraine's then moscow friendly leader to flee to Russia.
russia in turn annexed ukraine's crimean peninsula. kiev says at least
14,000 people have been killed in eight years of violence and along with his
western allies blames the bloodshed on russian sent fighters and weapons.
Legislators in russia's parliament on friday put forward a bill that would
ask President Vladimir Putin to recognize the independence of pro-moscow
separatist regions in Donetsk and Luhans.
Lower House speaker Vyacheslav Veloden said such a move which is all but
assured to enrage ukraine and prompt western condemnation would be a
solution to provide for the security of our citizens and countrymen in the
two regions.
