The United States, aka the US, is likely to become Indonesia's military ally against China. Contrast to AUKUS, the US sees Indonesia as a major power in Southeast Asia, the de facto leader of ASEAN, where Washington needs its stance against China.
What the US wants is likely to be realized where China itself interferes with Indonesia's sovereignty in North Natuna.
Indonesia loves peace, but the Unitary State of the Republic of Indonesia is a fixed price for defending the country, which the US sees as being in line with the slogan of Free And Open Indo Pacific. Free And Open Indo Pacific itself is the US slogan to oppose China's Nine Dash Line claim.
With this slogan, countries such as Japan, Australia, Germany and Britain joined in against China's claims. China itself could be destroyed if their fleet met with AUKUS troops.
But if Indonesia chooses to lean towards China, then AUKUS will have a hard time facing Beijing. Because so far the US has been keeping Indonesia from turning to China.
Benjamin Bland, Director of the Southeast Asia program at the Lowy Institute think tank, Sydney.
Bland said that the presence of US Foreign Minister Antony Blinken to Jakarta some time ago was important for relations between the two countries to respond to China's actions.
"He will try to convince Indonesians and Indonesians about the US and its commitment to the region and Indonesia, in particular," Bland said as quoted from scmp.com, January 1, 2022.
Because during the Donald Trump administration, the US made the mistake of overriding Indonesia's influence in Southeast Asia.
"Indonesia is not on the agenda because the US has been so focused on competing with China, and Indonesia is wary of this great power competition. In Southeast Asia, Washington is most actively engaged with those who are more enthusiastic about a US counterattack against China, such as Singapore and Vietnam," said Bland.
It was only when the government changed to Joe Biden, there was one thing that made the US realize that Indonesia was the decider of the fate of Southeast Asia, whether it wanted to join China or defend its respective sovereignty.
"But hopefully this will be the beginning of a correction in US policy. Because while Indonesia is wary of making alliances with other countries, it also doesn't want to see areas dominated by China," he said.
He explained that the US would be foolish if it did not bind Indonesia to become its military ally, even without a defense pact.
As long as Indonesia's defense needs are supplied by the US with anti-embargo guarantees, China's influence can be suppressed in Southeast Asia.
"There's a feeling that a lot of outside powers want to be more involved in the region, to do more with Indonesia, as a major power in Southeast Asia, and as a country that doesn't form alliances," said Bland.
Meanwhile, Director of the American Studies Center at the University of Indonesia, Suzie Sudarman, said that Indonesia is currently being pushed into US influence. But Jakarta also still needs money from China to run the economy.
"The US is now reading tea leaves, they are trying hard to push Indonesia into their sphere of influence, but Indonesia also still needs capital and money from China," said Suzie as quoted from SCMP.
However, Indonesia is also worried about China's activities in Natuna, so it is not surprising that Jakarta opens up opportunities for war games with the US.
"On the other hand, Indonesia is worried about China's activities in Natuna, so I hope the Commander in Chief asks Blinken to hold joint exercises in Natuna if Indonesia feels threatened," said Suzie.
The US understood Indonesia's request, whereupon Washington finally gave an official statement that they would help deal with China.
"We support Indonesia's strong efforts to safeguard its maritime rights and counter China's aggression in the South China Sea, including in its exclusive economic zone around the Natuna Islands," stated state.gov on December 12, 2021.
The US is apparently proud to make Indonesia a military ally and strategic partner to fight Beijing in the Indo Pacific. The US's initial step is to hold war games as often as possible with the three TNI dimensions.
"Security cooperation is a central pillar of our strategic partnership. The United States is proud to be Indonesia's largest defense partner in terms of the number of exercises and annual events in which we participate together. Our cooperation on counterterrorism and in countering violent extremism is also an important component of our joint efforts. to build a safer world," he added.
Not only defense, regional stability and Indonesia's prosperity through trade cooperation between the two countries will also be carried out by the US.
"The United States remains highly committed to Indonesia's prosperity. We are investing in upholding a free and open Indo-Pacific where all countries, including Indonesia, can pursue economic growth consistent with international law and the principles of fair competition," said the state. gov.
The US has challenged China that Indonesia should no longer be touched or disturbed because it is Washington's strategic military partner.
