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| Canada’s election: What You Need to Know |
At the beginning of the year, Pierre Poilievre, the leader of Canada's Conservative Party, seemed almost certain to become the next prime minister. After nearly ten years under Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party, dissatisfaction with Trudeau was widespread, even among his supporters.
Then events unfolded quickly: Trudeau stepped down, Donald Trump returned to the U.S. presidency, threatened Canada's sovereignty, and signed an executive order imposing tariffs on Canadian imports. The Liberal Party chose a new leader, Mark Carney, while the tariffs sent financial markets tumbling.
The Conservatives’ commanding 25-point lead in the polls collapsed by March. Now, as Canadians head to the polls on Monday, the Liberals are poised to win a fourth consecutive term in office. Here’s a breakdown of an election reshaped by a politician outside Canada’s borders — Trump.
The candidates
Four major political parties have fielded candidates for prime minister, including the New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh and the Bloc Québécois under Yves-François Blanchet.
Yet the real contest boils down to a face-off between Liberal leader Mark Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.
Sixty-year-old Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, is a newcomer to politics. Still, many Canadians view his extensive experience in banking and the private sector as exactly what's needed to confront Trump’s challenges.
David Coletto, CEO and founder of polling firm Abacus Data, believes Carney’s emergence came at a critical time.
"Mark Carney emerged at a moment where I think more and more Canadians were looking for somebody with his experience, with his demeanor, with his approach to politics. That was very much of the moment."
Before Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency, Poilievre’s fiery, populist approach was seen as a refreshing change for Canada. But now that Trump's tariff threats have materialized, voters have grown wary of the 45-year-old Conservative leader, says Robert Huish, a social science professor at Dalhousie University.
"Many people in Canada have associated a lot of the language, a lot of the terminology, speaking points, that Pierre Poilievre uses to exactly what Donald Trump has been saying over the last how many years," he told NPR.
"Canada first, migration is a bad thing. Stronger borders. Budget cuts. All the stuff that you would hear Trump sort of doing, Poilievre has really adapted."
Trump’s impact on Canada's election
This election is widely seen as one of the most crucial for Canadians in a generation, largely centered around a single question — who can stand up to Donald Trump? Will it be Carney for the Liberals or Poilievre for the Conservatives?
"There is a level of trust that has been lost between Ottawa and Washington that will be difficult to repair," says Jared Wesley, a political scientist at the University of Alberta. "I don't think that the Canada-U.S. relationship will go back to the way that it was without a major change in the leadership approach."
Trump’s return has fundamentally changed the election landscape. Canadian nationalism is surging. Trump’s past threats to annex Canada as a 51st state, his mockery of Trudeau, and the imposition of tariffs have triggered a strong anti-American sentiment. Canadians are boycotting U.S. goods and canceling trips across the border. The nation has rallied against a common adversary: Donald Trump.
First-time candidate Jessica Fancy-Landry, running for the Liberals in a small Nova Scotia district, recognizes the election’s significance.
"People know that this is a historic election," she told NPR. "I don't think that there's ever been an election that means more to Canada."
Beyond Trump — other key election issues
Before Trump's re-election, Canadians were most concerned with rising living costs and a worsening national housing crisis. Poilievre had built a strong following among Gen Z men by highlighting the issue of housing affordability.
At one of Poilievre’s largest campaign events in Nisku, Alberta, NPR spoke to Bentley and Teagan Reimer — two young brothers voting federally for the first and second time — who attended the rally with their mother. They expressed fears about their future ability to own homes.
"The economic climate right now is kind of going downhill, if there is anything we can do to change that and bring it back up," Bentley said.
No matter which party claims victory, maintaining national unity during tough economic times will be an urgent task.
"National unity is going to be a major issue for the Prime Minister no matter who wins," says Wesley.
Canadian election — how it works
In Canada's first-past-the-post system, voters don’t directly choose the prime minister. Instead, they elect a local Member of Parliament in one of 343 ridings. The leader of the party winning the most seats in the House of Commons then becomes the Prime Minister.
Due to Canada's six time zones, polling times vary, but most close by 9:30 p.m. ET. Final results are expected later Monday night. Whoever wins will immediately face a daunting challenge: finding a way to manage relations with Canada’s volatile neighbor to the south.