Fears that Russia might invade Ukraine do not seem to have subsided even
though Moscow has announced its troop withdrawal. Most recently, a warning
that Russia could attack its neighbor was issued by Estonia.
Russia continues to move troops to Ukraine's borders and is likely to launch
a "limited" military offensive against the country.
Mikk Marran, head of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, said. Marran
said the attack would include missile bombing and the occupation of "main
ground" in Ukraine.
“Right now, our assessment is that they will avoid cities with large
populations, as it takes a lot of troops to control those areas. But there
is no clear understanding of what avenues Russian forces might exploit," he
said at a press conference held to introduce the service's annual report.
Another possibility, according to Estonian intelligence, could be
intensified fighting from the two Russian-backed breakaway areas in eastern
Ukraine.
Marran said that such an escalation was "very likely," and in this way
Russia was likely to get a plausible denial and evade sanctions.
"If Russia is successful in Ukraine, it will push it to increase pressure in
the Baltics in the years to come. The threat of war has become a key policy
tool for Putin," he said.
Marran said Estonian intelligence knew about 10 Russian army combat groups
were moving towards the Ukrainian border, where 100 Russian military combat
groups, or about 170,000 troops, had been deployed.
This number includes troops normally deployed in the area around Ukraine,
but also troops in Belarus that Russia has sent for military exercises near
the Ukrainian border.
According to Marran some of the troops will likely stay in Belarus after the
end of the February 20 exercise, a significant concern for the NATO alliance
which includes the Baltics.
"That will reduce preparation time for an attack on the Baltics," he
concluded. The United States had previously kept warning that Moscow could
strike "at any time" amid rising tensions in the region, while Russia's
Defense Ministry said some of its troops stationed near the Ukrainian border
would begin returning to their bases.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told ABC's "Good Morning America"
that the US saw "no significant setbacks" and described the situation as
"very, very concerning."
The same thing was expressed by NATO which stated that it saw no signs of
withdrawing troops from the Ukrainian border.
"Right now, we haven't seen a Russian troop withdrawal," he said, before
chairing a meeting of NATO Defense Ministers in Brussels, Belgium.
“If they do start withdrawing troops, that is something we would welcome.
But that remains to be seen."
Russia has amassed about 150,000 troops in eastern, northern and southern
Ukraine, fueling Western fears that it is planning an attack.
Moscow itself has denied having any such plans and this week said it had
pulled back some troops and weapons, although it gave no details.
On Wednesday (16/2/2022) Russia's Defense Ministry released a video showing
a train loaded with armored vehicles moving across the bridge from Crimea,
the Black Sea peninsula that Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014.
