The United States (US) said it had obtained important information showing Russia was preparing a false flag operation as an excuse to invade Ukrainian territory. The operations operator was trained in urban warfare and used explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russian proxy forces.
A US official said that "the Russian military plans to start this activity a few weeks before the military invasion, which could start sometime between mid-January and mid-February."
He also added, "We have seen this strategy in 2014 in Crimea," he told CNN, Saturday (15/1/2022).
Furthermore, the official said the US has also seen actors influenced by Russia begin to direct Moscow audiences for Ukrainian intervention, including by emphasizing the narrative about deteriorating human rights in Ukraine and the increasing militancy of Ukrainian leaders.
"During December, Russian-language content on social media spanning these three narratives increased to an average of nearly 3,500 posts per day, a 200% increase from the daily average in November," the official said.
US officials said the Biden administration believed Russia could prepare for an invasion of Ukraine that could result in widespread human rights abuses and war crimes if diplomacy failed to fulfill their goals. The US official's statement was echoed by the Pentagon's Press Secretary, John Kirby.
According to him, the Defense Ministry already has credible information indicating Russia has pre-positioned a group of operators to carry out operations designed to look like attacks on them or Russian-speaking people in Ukraine to create an excuse for a potential invasion.
Kirby said that Putin may have firsthand knowledge of Russia's "Fake Flag" operation that could serve as a pretext for operations in Ukraine.
"If the past is a prologue, it's hard to see that this kind of activity could be carried out, it would be carried out without the knowledge if not the approval of a very senior level of the Russian government," Kirby told reporters.
Regarding this operation, national security adviser Jake Sullivan was also mentioned during a briefing with reporters on Thursday.
"Our intelligence community has developed information, which has now been passed down, that Russia is laying the groundwork for having the option of fabricating pretexts for invasion," Sullivan said on Thursday. "We saw this strategy in 2014. They are preparing this strategy again," he added.
Meanwhile Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin denied that Moscow was preparing a provocation in Ukraine. According to him it is an excessive accusation that will cost him.
The US intelligence findings come after a week-long diplomatic meeting between Moscow and Western officials over the gathering of tens of thousands of Russian troops along the Ukrainian border.
However, it was noted that the talks failed to achieve any breakthrough, as Russia would not commit to reducing tensions. U.S. and NATO officials say Moscow's demands -- including that NATO never admits Ukraine into the alliance -- are not a start.
