Putin to launches blitzkrieg to break through ukraine's lines of defense.
The storm is thickening, the Kremlin keeps advancing new threats of a
full-fledged invasion of ukraine in the near future.
According to numerous reports from the intelligence community and media,
Russia has currently concentrated between ninety four thousand and one
hundred thousand combat ready troops in close proximity to the ukrainian
border.
Russia upped the stakes on december 1st. president vladimir putin demanded
for Nato to guarantee that it wouldn't expand to include ukraine.
On the same day the kremlin launched military exercises with 10,000 troops
in the country's southern military district adjacent to ukraine, as well as
the russian occupied Crimea.
Right now nobody can say for sure whether this is bluff. What if the Kremlin
does decide to invade ukraine? Here's what the intelligence and expert
community think can happen.
Speaking to the military times on november 21st, Ukraine's military
intelligence Chief Brigade General Carrillo Bhutanov said Russia is probably
preparing to launch a new blitzkrieg in late january or early february.
"The first step would likely include massive psychological warfare action,
such as instigating unrest through protests and meetings to undermine the
country's ability to fight back," the General told
the Military Times.
The military action would likely involve air strikes artillery and armor
attacks followed by airborne assaults in Ukraine's east, as well as
amphibious offensives in Odessa and Mariupol according to the ukrainian
intelligence.
On top of that a smaller advance may be expected across the northwestern
border with belarus. The outlet published a map by ukraine's military
intelligence showing the most probable russian strike directions coming from
occupied Donbass, Crimea and Russia's southwestern regions bordering
Ukraine.
The Blitz may be aimed at seizing most of ukraine's territory east of the
nepro river, as well as the black sea coastline.
According to ukrainian intelligence, as of november 20th russia had deployed
40 battalion tactical groups including 94,000 troops, 1,200 tanks, 2,900
armored fighting vehicles, 1,600 artillery pieces, 330 airplanes, 240
helicopters, 75 maritime vessels and six submarines.
Right now, according to intelligence russia is able to immediately deploy at
least 3,500 airborne and special operations troops. this whole force may
soon rush into ukraine.
According to general budanov, nasty winter weather would not be a
significant obstacle to the russian troops or the ukrainian defenders.
According to the institute for the study of war, ISW a Washington DC based
Think Tank, there are three potential scenarios. Russia's massive military
deployment to belarus to counter an alleged Nato invasion, a massive
deployment to Donbass against an alleged ukrainian attack and a full-scale
invasion beyond Crimea and Donbass, which is envisaged by the ukrainian
intelligence.
The ISW considers the full-scale offensive the least likely of the possible
scenarios. In its november 30th report, the ISW reported an increase of
russian command and control elements in Donbass or southern or western
russia near the russian ukrainian border in november.
Russia has also been seen decreasing its bandwidth on railways for
commercial enterprises since october, which might also potentially suggest
logistical preparations for war. The ISW has also recorded the mobilization
of the donbass militant reserve forces under the guidance of russia's eighth
combined arms army.
The ISW is not recording many crucial indicators of a full-fledged, combined
arms operation being prepared by Russia.
In particular the russian troops concentrated at the border seemingly fall
short of the mobilization of artillery at the regiment and brigade level.
The same goes for airborne forces and the caspian sea elements in the black
sea, and the migrant crisis in Belarus is intensifying, probably to set
conditions for a russian military deployment in belarus as the isw
estimates.
But so far as of late november, no additional russian ground forces have
been seen being deployed to Belarus and last but not least, the ISW does not
indicate the mobilization of the russian strategic rocket forces. In other
words, the nuclear stockpile which is also might be an indicator that an
operation is imminent or already underway.
