Ukraine's defense ministry issued the
statement hours before U.S President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin will speak in a high-stakes video
conference after russia amassed troops
near ukraine's border. The statement said the enemy increased
the number of sniper pairs in readiness
to inflict casualties on the personnel
of the joint forces, destroy video
surveillance elements and provoke return.
Fire President Joe Biden warned Russian President Vladimir Putin on tuesday that
the west would impose strong economic
and other measures on russia if it
invades ukraine. While putin demanded
guarantees that nato would not expand
farther eastward. It is the second time this year that
russia has amassed forces near its
borders with ukraine. So why has the
estimated 90,000 troop build-up left
western governments and independent
analysts more concerned?
The stark warning by the u.s secretary
of state anthony blinken on wednesday
that russia has made plans for a
large-scale attack as backed up by open
source analysis and western intelligence
assessments. There is enough substance to this, one
insider added President Joe Biden is
said to have been concerned for weeks
but efforts to cool the temperature
including thursday's summit between Blinken and his counterpart, Sergey Lavrov have failed, suggesting russia
wants the crisis to continue.
James the defense intelligence
specialist has tracked the deployment of
russian tanks, artillery and other units
into occupied crimea in the south of
ukraine, Varonesh in the east and around
smolensk to the north in what it coolly
describes as anomalous russian military
activity.
Neil Melvin the director of
international security studies at the Rusi Think Tank, described the build-up
as much more serious than was seen in
april because there is some evidence of
meaningful combat preparations, notably
in the field modification sported by
russian armor. They look like cages bolted onto the
roof and reflect the fact Kremlin has
been spooked by some of ukraine's recent
arms purchases from the west. A particular concern to Moscow are U.S Javelin anti-tank missiles and turkish TB-2 Biroktar Drones. Both of which aim to
knock out russian armor by striking it
where it is weakest on the top. At the same time russia has raised the Rhetoric.
Earlier this week President Vladimir Putin warned that increased
nato military support for ukraine would
cross a red line. In particular he warned against the
stationing in ukraine of western missile
defense systems, similar to those in
romania or poland. The focus on arms links to broader
reasons on why russia might want to
force the issue.
Orija Lutsevich a ukrainian analyst from
the Chatham House Foreign Policy Think Tank said that time plays in ukraine's
favor as it seeks to develop along
western lines. Putin does not want Kiev to drift
gradually and decisively into the
western sphere, she adds.
Russia wants greater control over its
near abroad and to prevent nato
enlargement and that includes Georgia as
well ukraine, she said. It is easy to argue that recent
developments are designed by russia to
test the west in the us's resolve. Particularly as a new left-leaning
german government is poised to take over. However western diplomats emphasize that
ukraine is not a member of NATO and that
therefore there is no obligation to
defend the country if attacked.
Instead Jen Stoltenberg NATO's secretary
general emphasized an economic response
on wednesday morning, "we all made it very clear that there
will be a high price to pay and
sanctions as one of the options. Although
melvin added that years of escalating
sanctions have raised the costs to
russia but not deterred it. A full-scale attack remains hard to
imagine however and russia's aim is most
likely diplomatic".
Melvin believes that russia hopes to
restart the stalled minsk peace process. The
2014-2015 agreement struck after russia
seized Crimea and separatists took over
the Don Base region, now divided from the
rest of the country by sniping over
military front lines.
"Russia wants to neutralize ukraine and
turn it into a buffer state, it would be optimal from its point of
view to have Don Base recognized as
autonomous with the leadership elected
under russia's control with a veto over
kiev's foreign policy," Melvin said.
