The deployment of tens of thousands of Russian troops to northern, eastern and southern Ukraine sparked fears in Kiev and western capitals that Moscow was planning a new offensive. Russia, however, denies any such plans.
According to a report from Routers on Saturday, January 15, 2022, Western military analysts argue that Russia cannot deploy troops in its position for several reasons. The reasons were mentioned in the form of financial and logistical reasons, and had to withdraw in the summer.
Estimates of the number of new Russian troops stationed in Ukraine range from 60,000 to around 100,000. US intelligence documents suggest the number could rise to 175,000 troops.
US officials say Russia may attack Ukraine as early as this month when the ground will be more difficult, making it easier for tanks and other defense equipment to move quickly.
During talks this week with the United States and NATO, Russia demanded security guarantees to defuse the crisis.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Friday said Moscow was not willing to wait for an uncertain response and wanted detailed written responses to any Russian proposals.
Armed Russian-backed separatists have controlled eastern Ukraine since 2014 and continue to exchange weapons with Ukrainian government forces, despite a 2015 ceasefire which was most recently a major conflict.
The conflict in the Donbass has killed at least 15,000 people according to. For this reason, Ukraine has long accused Russia of having regular troops in the region. But this was immediately denied by Moscow.
Russia accuses Ukraine of harboring plans to retake the territory by force, which Ukraine denies. In such a heated atmosphere, the risk of misunderstanding or unplanned escalation is greater and Russia can use such incidents as a light defense.
A source familiar with the Russian Defense Ministry's thinking said it was the most likely scenario if Moscow decided to attack but was not aware of the decision.
Ukraine could also be provoked to attack by the separatists who could then ask Russia to send troops to assist them, he said.
Russian forces could extend to fighting in the Donbass to pull Ukraine into a conventional conflict, said Neil Melvin, director of International Security Studies at RUSI in London.
Neil Melvin added that Moscow could try to seize Ukraine's coastal areas in the Sea of Azov. This can be done by building a land bridge from the Russian city of Rostov via Donbass to Crimea.
